564 FXUS64 KTSA 031641 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1041 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021 ...UPDATE... .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with an increase in high cloudiness from the west mid to late morning tomorrow. Southwesterly winds will continue through the afternoon, becoming light this evening and overnight, before increasing from the southeast some after sunrise tomorrow. FSM will be the wind exception, with its typical easterly wind developing tomorrow morning and continuing through at least midday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 936 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... No update is planned this morning, as the going forecast has the expected well above normal temperatures and heightened fire weather conditions associated with the continued low dew points and southwesterly winds well handled. Mixing heights from yesterday's evening soundings were on the order of 5kft, and short term model projections indicate similar for today given plenty of sun and downslope low level flow. Forecast high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s are supported by the morning soundings and this expected mixing height. Current dew points are higher than at this same time yesterday, but the warmer temperatures today will offset the modest increase in the dew points to keep relative humidities low. Wind speeds/gusts today will be high enough to support enhanced fire spread rates across parts of northeast Oklahoma. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light south-southwest winds. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 227 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ DISCUSSION... Synoptically, the current progressive upper air pattern over the CONUS is expected to persist into next week. Aside from the Thursday night into Friday time frame, this is largely a temperature and wind forecast. Fire weather concerns will be heightened on windy and warm days. Very similar setup today compared to yesterday with full March insolation and SW surface winds. The NBM ensemble 75th percentile verified best yesterday with high temps, so will lean on this for today's forecast. With gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range and low humidity values forecast, will be issuing a Fire Danger Statement again today but for a larger part of NE OK and far NW AR. Tomorrow will be warm and windy across NE OK as well with increasing SE winds ahead of the approaching storm system. Increasing clouds in the afternoon gave me slight reservation in going all in with the warmer MOS and NBM ensemble median. Upper low will track southeast across western OK Thursday night while gradually weakening and transitioning to an open wave with time. Based on the track of the system, the deformation zone will set up across our area on the north and east side of the circulation, leading to a wet overnight into Friday morning across eastern OK. With the surface low track staying well to our southwest and sub-par moisture return into the system from the south, will maintain slight chance thunder mention mainly across east-central and southeast OK. As the system transitions into an open wave on Friday, the forcing shifts down into TX near the basal portion of the wave where the best PVA will be. As such, the rains should taper off fairly quickly in the afternoon and we should be dry by Friday evening. This will be a good lead in to a nice weekend ahead. With sunny skies and a gradual return to southerly low level flow, the pattern is looking warm and generally should be above the NBM guidance. The warmer MOS and NBM ensemble median guidance was preferred over the weekend and Monday. More cloud cover by Tuesday adds more uncertainty. Tuesday is looking like the windiest day of this forecast ahead of the next strong and progressive system approaching from the west. Our next chance for showers and storms will come around Wednesday of next week as this storm system and front progress east across the Plains. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 40 70 47 / 0 0 0 70 FSM 71 38 71 46 / 0 0 0 50 MLC 70 40 70 47 / 0 0 0 70 BVO 73 34 70 45 / 0 0 0 60 FYV 67 33 68 42 / 0 0 0 40 BYV 68 38 68 44 / 0 0 0 30 MKO 70 38 69 47 / 0 0 0 70 MIO 69 37 69 45 / 0 0 0 40 F10 72 40 70 47 / 0 0 0 80 HHW 68 37 68 47 / 0 0 0 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....22