466 FXUS63 KDDC 041125 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 525 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 Infrared satellite imagery at midnight showed overcast skies across all of southwest KS courtesy of a weak shortwave impulse ejecting from the Desert Southwest and ongoing moist advection via southerly winds. Upstream from this impulse, a larger, more potent vorticity max will move into the Four Corners region by 00Z Saturday. Divergence aloft/DCVA associated with this trough will further deepen a pre-existing surface low in eastern CO, resulting in a very windy day across southwest KS with sustained winds in the 20-30 mph range and gusts of 40-45 mph. Cloud cover will persist through most of Friday morning before the aforementioned weak impulse moves into northern KS/southern NE and subsidence on the back side erodes the clouds from west to east during the afternoon. Accordingly, afternoon temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler over our eastern zones, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s near the KS/CO border, and mid 70s in central KS. After sunset, southerly winds will only weaken slightly as the pressure gradient over southwest KS is maintained, once again inhibiting radiational cooling and fostering lows in the 40s and 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 By Saturday morning, medium range guidance is in good agreement regarding the upper level pattern, with a longwave trough over the western CONUS, and a longwave ridge over the eastern CONUS. Embedded within the longwave trough are multiple potent shortwaves, the first of which will be in the process of ejecting into the central plains during the day Saturday. Daytime temperatures will increase quickly through the morning as clear skies and southwest winds optimize heating, however, the ejecting shortwave trough will bring a strong but dry cold front through southwest KS during the afternoon, allowing temperatures to crash to below freezing by Sunday morning. Another strong shortwave trough will eject from the Desert Southwest into the central plains during the day Sunday, bringing a slight chance of precipitation to southwest KS. Several members of the ECMWF ensembles and a few of the GEFS members bring a few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch of QPF into our area Sunday and Monday, however given the ongoing drought, the recent cold frontal passage scouring out most of the moisture, and the progressive nature of the wave, confidence in any measurable precipitation is low. Otherwise, temperatures will be much cooler early next week as a reinforcing shot of cold air associated with the second shortwave is expected Sunday night. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s Sunday and the low 40s on Monday seem reasonable. A third and final shortwave trough will dig south into the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico by 18Z Tuesday, but this feature will eject into the southern plains, effectively eliminating any impacts in southwest KS. Surface high pressure that built in behind Sunday night's cold front will slide southeast of our area, allowing southwest winds to return and a warming trend to commence. Afternoon highs will increase from the low to mid 50s Tuesday to the upper 50s/low 60s Wednesday under mostly clear skies. On Thursday, medium range guidance is in reasonable agreement depicting another strong cold front will pass through the central plains, although spatiotemporal differences between solutions renders confidence in exact timing low. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 521 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 VFR flying conditions this TAF period for all terminals. Southerly winds currently in the 10-15 kt range will begin to increase after sunrise into the 20-25 kt range with gusts of 30-34 kts by the afternoon. After sunset Friday, winds will not appreciably weaken as the pressure gradient over southwest KS is maintained. Around 03-04Z, a strong low-level jet will overspread southwest KS resulting in roughly 50 kts of south-southwesterly LLWS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 Critical fire weather conditions are expected to arise this afternoon across western KS despite ongoing moist advection helping to increase dewpoint temperatures across our area. A surface cyclone in eastern CO will deepen during the day today (Friday) resulting in a significant increase in the southerly winds by this afternoon. Sustained winds in the 20-30 mph range with gusts of 40-45 mph are likely. Concurrently, temperatures will increase into the upper 70s and possibly low 80s by mid- afternoon, leading to minimum relative humidity in the 10-15% range. That said, a potential mode of failure exists in the expected cloud cover as skies will be overcast through much of the morning. If clouds can hang on longer than anticipated, temperatures will be cooler and relative humidity will therefore be higher. However, DNVA in the wake of a passing weak shortwave impulse is projected to erode the cloud cover from west to east during the afternoon, permitting the forecast critical fire weather conditions to materialize. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all counties along and west of U.S. Highway 83 from 12 pm CST through 7 pm CST. Another day of fire weather danger is possible Saturday as strong winds and dry air will still be in place Saturday morning and afternoon. While a cold front is forecast to move through southwest KS Saturday afternoon, which will lower temperatures and therefore raise relative humidity, confidence is still high enough in reaching criteria to support issuing a Fire Weather Watch for the majority of our counties Saturday afternoon from 12 pm CST through 6 pm CST, with only our far north and northwest counties being excluded. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 77 51 71 22 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 77 46 65 21 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 79 43 69 23 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 76 45 71 22 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 77 53 68 21 / 10 10 10 0 P28 75 56 77 28 / 0 10 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for KSZ046-064>066-074>081- 084>090. Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Springer FIRE WEATHER...Springer