936 
FXUS65 KBOI 080922
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
322 AM MDT Thu Sep 8 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Cooler temperatures
arrive today and Friday as the region remains positioned on the
back side of a longwave trough. Northwest flow and tight surface
pressure gradient will support gusty winds this afternoon, the
strongest along the I-84 corridor and through the Boise 
mountains. The air mass will remain quite dry during the period 
as the trough exits eastward and an upper ridge builds in from the
coast. This will allow for some cool overnight low temperatures
that haven't been seen since mid-June. By Saturday afternoon the 
upper high center will reach the OR/ID border, bringing a return 
to above normal temperatures. Though cooler, the breezy and dry
conditions will likely continue to feed fire growth. Thus, smoke 
will likely thicken Friday into Saturday as flow aloft weakens and
the upper high brings more stable conditions to the region. 

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...A retrograding high will 
bring the highest temperatures, about 5-10 degrees above normal,
to the region on Sunday. An upper level Pacific Low will move in 
early Monday, as moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Kay also 
will move into the Intermountain West. This will decrease 
temperatures into the upper 70s-low 80s with widespread rain 
showers and afternoon thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Depending on the extent of the tropical moisture and moisture 
associated with the Pacific Low, high rainfall accumulations are 
possible. However, there is significant disagreement on the 
interaction of the two moisture sources and resulting 
precipitation between model outputs. As the upper level low passes 
to the east, dry southwest flow with cooler temperatures will 
return for Thursday. 

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Smoke reducing visibility surface and
aloft will increase Thursday with MVFR and IFR conditions near 
fires. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 kt becoming W-NW 15-20 kt with 
gusts to 30 kt. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: W-NW 20-30 kt.

.Weekend Outlook... Mostly VFR. Clear with a few high clouds and 
areas of smoke. Isolated rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms
in southeast Oregon late Sunday. Surface winds will be mostly 
variable less than 10 kt.

&&


.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening 
     IDZ421-424-426.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA