000 FGUS73 KARX 091055 ESFLSE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 558 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2003 ...MODERATE (D1) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE LA CROSSE HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA... FROM OCTOBER 1ST TO OCTOBER 7TH...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FELL ACROSS CLARK...TAYLOR...JACKSON...JUNEAU... AND ADAMS COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SAW GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WERE 3 TO 7F COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS KEPT THE DROUGHT FROM WORSENING ACROSS THE NWS LA CROSSE HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA. THE OCTOBER 7TH...U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DROUGHT SITUATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) REMAINED ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA, AND WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. FINALLY...MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THREE FOURTHS OF MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A WEEKLY COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN A NUMBER OF FEDERAL AGENCIES INCLUDING NOAA/NWS...U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. DETAILS AND EXPLANATIONS OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR CAN FOUND AT THE WEBSITE (ALL LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED... EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) COVERS ALL 7 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR RIVER BASIN. IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... DODGE...FILLMORE...HOUSTON...MOWER...OLMSTED...WABASHA...AND WINONA COUNTIES. EXTREME DROUGHTS CAUSE MAJOR CROP/PASTURE LOSSES...EXTREME FIRE DANGER...AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS. SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) COVERS NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS INCLUDES ALL OR PART OF THE FOLLOWING RIVER BASINS...BLACK...CEDAR...KICKAPOO... MISSISSIPPI...ROOT...TREMPEALEAU...TURKEY...UPPER IOWA...AND WISCONSIN. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE LA CROSSE HSA... IN NORTHEAST IOWA... ALLAMAKEE...CHICKASAW...CLAYTON...FAYETTE...FLOYD...HOWARD... MITCHELL...AND WINNESHIEK COUNTIES. IN WISCONSIN... BUFFALO...CRAWFORD...NORTHERN AND WESTERN GRANT...JACKSON... JUNEAU...LA CROSSE...MONROE...RICHLAND...TREMPEALEAU...AND VERNON COUNTIES. DURING A SEVERE DROUGHT...CROP OR PASTURES LOSSES ARE LIKELY... FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH...WATER SHORTAGES ARE COMMON...AND WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE USUALLY IMPOSED. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS EXIST IN ADAMS...CLARK... TAYLOR...AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GRANT COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN. MODERATE DROUGHTS CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES...INCREASE THE FIRE RISK...WATER SHORTAGES DEVELOP OR ARE IMMINENT IN STREAMS... RESERVOIRS...OR WELLS...AND VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS ARE REQUESTED. CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY... THE COMBINATION OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE HYDROLOGICAL RECHARGE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 2002 TO MAY 2003 AND RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES FROM JULY 11TH TO SEPTEMBER 30TH HAVE RESULTED IN MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LA CROSSE HSA. PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX... THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PDSI) IS ONE OF THE OLDEST AND MOST WIDELY USED MEASURES FOR ASSESSING METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN THE U.S. IT HAS BEEN CALCULATED BACK FOR OVER 100 YEARS AND ALLOWS FOR LONG-TERM DROUGHT COMPARISONS. THIS INDEX TENDS TO BE SLOW TO REACT TO SHORT-TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS (SUCH AS WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING SINCE JULY 11TH)...HENCE THE LOWER DROUGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE CATEGORIES OF THE PDSI ARE AS FOLLOWS: EXTREME DROUGHT : -4.00 OR LESS SEVERE DROUGHT : -3.00 TO -3.99 MODERATE DROUGHT : -2.00 TO -2.99 MILD DROUGHT : -1.00 TO -1.99 NEAR NORMAL : +0.99 TO -0.99 MOIST SPELL : +1.00 TO +1.99 UNUSUAL MOIST SPELL: +2.00 TO +2.99 VERY MOIST : +3.00 TO +3.99 EXTREMELY MOIST : +4.00 OR MORE CURRENT (OCTOBER 4TH) PDSI NUMBERS FOR THE SEVEN CLIMATE DISTRICTS COVERING ALL OF THE LA CROSSE HSA ARE AS FOLLOWS: RAINFALL NEEDED CLIMATE DISTRICT(#) PDSI CATEGORY TO END THE DROUGHT ------------------- ---- -------- ------------------ IA NORTH CENTRAL (2) -2.14 MODERATE DROUGHT 4.76 INCHES IA NORTHEAST (3) -2.18 MODERATE DROUGHT 4.91 INCHES MN SOUTHEAST (9) -3.23 SEVERE DROUGHT 7.02 INCHES WI NORTH CENTRAL (2) -2.60 MODERATE DROUGHT 5.04 INCHES WI WEST CENTRAL (4) -2.93 MODERATE DROUGHT 6.32 INCHES WI CENTRAL (5) 0.58 WI SOUTHWEST (7) -2.56 MODERATE DROUGHT 5.24 INCHES ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE PDSI AND OTHER CLIMATE DATA CAN BE VIEWED AT THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) WEBSITE AT (ALL LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/MONITORING_AND_DATA/US.HTML SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... SOIL MOISTURE HAS BEEN HEAVILY DEPLETED AS A RESULT OF NORMAL CROP DEVELOPMENT AND THE VERY DRY WEATHER. INDICATIONS BY THE CPC ARE THAT SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STATED AS A PERCENTILE OF LONG-TERM SOIL MOISTURE THESE VALUES RANGE FROM THE DRIEST TO 5TH PERCENTILE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...FROM THE 5TH TO 10TH PERCENTILE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... AND FROM 10TH TO 20TH PERCENTILE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) WEBSITE AT (ALL LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST/INDEX.HTML RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS... THE RAINS DURING THE LAST WEEK HAVE INCREASED THE FLOWS OF RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...THE REMAINDER OF THE LA CROSSE SAW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT. MANY SMALLER STREAMS ARE STILL RUNNING BELOW 40TH PERCENTILE OF ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE. BELOW ARE SOME CURRENT (OCTOBER 9TH) RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS VERSUS LONG TERM MEAN IN CUBIC FEET PER SECOND (CFS). THESE ARE FOR SELECTED RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE LA CROSSE HSA WITH LONG PERIODS OF RECORD AS MEASURED BY THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS). LONG-TERM MEAN FLOW FOR THIS DATE PERCENT OF RIVER (CFS) (CFS) NORMAL FLOW ----- ----- -------------- ----------- BLACK AT NEILLSVILLE, WI 55 368 15 BLACK AT GALESVILLE, WI 401 1266 32 BLOODY CREEK AT MARQUETTE, IA 10 23 43 CEDAR AT AUSTIN, MN 62 151 41 CEDAR AT CHARLES CITY, IA 171 530 32 GRANT AT BURTON, WI 79 122 65 KICKAPOO AT LA FARGE, WI 124 142 87 KICKAPOO AT STEUBEN, WI 348 413 84 LITTLE CEDAR NEAR IONIA, IA 16 140 11 MISSISSIPPI AT MC GREGOR, IA 15300 28530 54 PLATTE NEAR ROCKVILLE, WI 41 69 59 TREMPEALEAU NEAR DODGE, WI 341 355 96 TURKEY AT GARBER, IA 126 5131 24 UPPER IOWA AT DECORAH, IA 76 234 32 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY BE VIEWED AT THE USGS WEBSITE (ALL LOWER CASE): HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH AGRICULTURAL AFFECTS... THE FOLLOWING ARE THE STATWIDE CROP CONDITIONS AS OF SEPTEMBER 29TH... WISCONSIN... VERY POOR POOR FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT --------- ---- ---- ---- --------- PASTURE 16% 33% 33% 17% 1% CORN 11% 24% 34% 28% 3% SOY BEANS 17% 31% 33% 17% 2% ACCORDING TO THE WISCONSIN CROP WEATHER REPORT... "IN CLARK COUNTY...SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH LOWS 17 TO 19 DEGREES LAST WEEK ENDED OUR GROWING SEASON. WITH MONEY TIGHT...FARMERS ARE WAITING TO HARVEST CORN AND SOYBEANS UNTIL THEY GET AS DRY AS POSSIBLE IN THE FIELD TO AVOID ANY DRYING COSTS. IN GRANT COUNTY...WE HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO THE GROWING SEASON IS DONE. FEED SUPPLIES ARE VERY TIGHT. SOYBEAN YIELDS HAVE BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTING AT BEST. CORN YIELDS ARE WAY BELOW AVERAGE ON LIGHTER SOILS." MINNESOTA... VERY POOR POOR FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT --------- ---- ---- ---- --------- PASTURE 20% 31% 35% 14% 0% CORN 8% 17% 43% 30% 2% SOY BEANS 10% 25% 45% 19% 1% IOWA... VERY POOR POOR FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT --------- ---- ---- ---- --------- PASTURE 30% 31% 30% 9% 0% CORN 6% 15% 36% 36% 7% SOY BEANS 14% 30% 40% 15% 1% FIRE CONDITIONS... AS OF THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 9TH...HIGH FIRE DANGER WAS SEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL...AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR UPDATED FIRE CONDITIONS CONSULT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE... MINNESOTA... HTTP://WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/FORESTRY/FIRE/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE) WISCONSIN... HTTP://WORKPLAN.ORG/FORESTRY/FIREREPORT/PUBLIC/REPORTS /WDNR-FIRE_REPORT.ASP PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 16TH THROUGH 22ND SHOWS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS...THEY SUGGEST EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE LA CROSSE HSA. ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NWS LA CROSSE OFFICE AS THE SITUATION WARRANTS. ALSO...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DROUGHT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE AT... HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ARX/DROUGHT/DROUGHT.SHTML (ALL LOWER CASE) $$ BOYNE