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Hurricane Jose Local Statement Advisory Number 53

National Weather Service New York NY  AL122017

1144 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017



This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut



**Tropical Storm Watches Remain in Effect for Long Island, Southern 

Westchester, and Coastal and Southeast Connecticut**



NEW INFORMATION

---------------



* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

    - None



* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northeastern Suffolk, 

      Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau, Northern New London, 

      Northwestern Suffolk, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, 

      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, 

      Southern New London, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern 

      Suffolk



* STORM INFORMATION:

    - About 500 miles south-southeast of New York City NY or about 

      500 miles south of Montauk Point NY

    - 33.9N 71.1W

    - Storm Intensity 75 mph

    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 9 mph



SITUATION OVERVIEW

------------------



Hurricane Jose will continue to track northward through the western

Atlantic waters through mid week, passing to the southeast of the area

late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a tropical storm. The system

looks to be close enough for potential impacts, including tropical storm

force winds, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall. The best chance for 

tropical storm force winds and heavy rain will be across eastern Long 

Island and southeast Connecticut. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is

also likely.



POTENTIAL IMPACTS

-----------------



* WIND:

Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across 

Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. 

Potential impacts include:

    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 

      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.

    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 

      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are 

      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.

    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban 

      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on 

      bridges and other elevated roadways.

    - Scattered power and communications outages.



* FLOODING RAIN:

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible 

limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and 

Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include:

    

    - Heavy rain bands may develop as early as the morning commute on 

      Tuesday.

    - Rivers and streams may quickly rise with swifter currents. 

    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually 

      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water 

      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage 

      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become 

      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge 

      closures. 



* SURGE:

Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts 

across tidal portions of southeast New York, northeast New Jersey,

and southern Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Areas of 1 to 2 feet inundation are possible with the Tuesday and

      Wednesday high tide cycles. Localized inundation of up to 3 feet

      is possible in the typically more vulnerable locations.

    - Storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in

      low-lying spots.

    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread 

      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where 

      surge water covers the road.

    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly 

      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip 

      currents.

    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, 

      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.



Areas of 1 to 2 feet inundation are possible with the Tuesday and

Wednesday high tide cycles across tidal portions of Southeast New York,

Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Localized inundation of

up to 3 feet is possible in the typically more vulnerable locations

along the south shore back bays of Long Island and New York City, and

along Peconic and Gardiners Bays.



* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:

Jose will likely bring large waves, possibly close to 20 feet on the

coastal ocean waters south of Long Island, 9 to 12 feet on The Race and

Western Block Island Sound, and up to 7 feet on central Long Island

Sound.





PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

----------------------------------



* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary 

actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be 

underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency 

Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.



When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the 

exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties 

which must be taken into account.



If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind, 

such as a mobile home or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take

enough supplies for you and your family for several days.



If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as 

near the ocean, in a low lying or poor drainage area, plan to move to 

safe shelter on higher ground. 



Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders 

that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives 

of others.



When securing your property, outside preparations should be conducted 

as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of 

strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain preparedness 

activities to become unsafe.



Be sure to let friends and other family members know of your 

intentions and whereabouts for surviving the storm. For emergency 

purposes, have someone located away from the threatened area serve as 

your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. 

Keep cell phones handy and well charged.



Be a Good Samaritan and check on those who may not be fully aware of 

the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.



Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings. 

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are 

located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If 

staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite 

disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to 

area visitors.



Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for 

official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the 

forecast.



* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov

- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org

- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org



NEXT UPDATE

-----------



The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 

Service in New York NY around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions 

warrant.



$$



