

647 

WWUS20 KWNS 180108

SEL2

SPC WW 180108

ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-180800-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 22

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

705 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS

       NORTHERN LOUISIANA

       NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

       FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM

UNTIL 200 AM CST.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF EL

DORADO ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF OXFORD

MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN

BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING

WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.  00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID

LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH PARCELS TAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING NEAR

H85 EXPANDING NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MODEST

MUCAPE WITHIN STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.  STRONGER CORES WILL BE

CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH ELEVATED SUPERCELLS INCREASING

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL BY LATER THIS EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25035.





...EVANS

