

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 031831

SEL8

SPC WW 031831

NMZ000-TXZ000-040300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 338

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

125 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

       SOUTHWEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIDLAND TEXAS.

 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 336...WW 337...



DISCUSSION...INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR AND

JUST E OF HIGH TERRAIN IN SE NM IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE

TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EWD...WHILE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO

WARM/DESTABILIZE FARTHER E/SE INTO W/SW TX.  A SEPARATE WNW-ESE

ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SWD TO NEAR MIDLAND.  STRONG

INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG / AND A WEAKENING CAP IS

EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL

GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH VERY

LARGE HAIL. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE NOT PARTICULARLY

STRONG...THE EXPECTED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE

BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL

LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS

MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.





...THOMPSON

