

371 

WWUS20 KWNS 122100

SEL1

SPC WW 122100

MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-130500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 411

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

355 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA

  EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

  NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA



* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 355 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF

THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS

WOU1).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER NE ND EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE EWD AND STRENGTHEN/BUILD SWD LATER THIS EVE AS ACTIVITY

ENCOUNTERS AIR PARCELS ARRIVING FROM AREA THAT HAS BEEN MORE

STRONGLY HEATED FARTHER S AND E. 40-50 KT WKLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD

PROMOTE A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE MAY EVOLVE INTO

SHORT EWD-MOVING BANDS...WITH ASSOCIATED LEWPS/SMALL BOWS POSING A

RISK FOR DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

FARTHER S...OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM A BIT LATER WITH CONTINUED

SFC HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF NNE-SSW PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL/NE

SD. WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN FARTHER N...IT MAY

PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO AS

THE STORMS DRAW ON MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY/LOW-LVL

INFLOW EXPECTED OVER REGION THROUGH MID-LATE EVE.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26030.





...CORFIDI

