

911 

WWUS20 KWNS 252058

SEL4

SPC WW 252058

MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-260500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 364

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

350 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  WESTERN MINNESOTA

  NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

  NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA



* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 350 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT

  CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS

    TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF

MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ORTONVILLE

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 361...WW 362...WW 363...



DISCUSSION...AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE

NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS...INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT

UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO

OVERCOME LINGERING INHIBITION NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...NOW

EXTENDING NORTH OF A CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW THROUGH

NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS

THE WW AREA...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE CAPE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE

HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS.  AN INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO

DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE

EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL...ALONG WHICH

UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH MAY OCCUR...WITH EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28030.





...KERR

