

942 

WWUS20 KWNS 292051

SEL8

SPC WW 292051

NDZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-300300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 198

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

  WESTERN AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA

  NORTHEAST WYOMING



* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA TO 50 MILES NORTH OF MINOT NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR FROM NE WY AND

THE BLACK HILLS REGION NNE ALONG SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT INTO

WRN ND. COMBINATION OF SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER

KG/ AND MODERATE SSW DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO FRONT

SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE

HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND INTO EARLY EVE /REF MCD 755/. MOST OF THE

STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...MERGE INTO SHORT LINES LATER THIS

EVE...WITH A DIMINISHING RISK FOR SVR WIN/HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 22025.





...CORFIDI

