

834 

WWUS20 KWNS 140011

SEL7

SPC WW 140011

ARZ000-OKZ000-140600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 77

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

710 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS

  EASTERN OKLAHOMA



* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM

  UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75

    MPH POSSIBLE

  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS.

 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 74...WW 75...WW 76...



DISCUSSION...SVR QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM -- QLCS -- IS

EXPECTED TO PROCEED EWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH REMAINDER

EVENING...MOVING INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE

AND 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  THOUGH HODOGRAPHS ARE

EXPECTED TO ENLARGE SOMEWHAT DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...STRONGLY

FORCED/LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ALSO SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN CONVECTIVE

TRENDS AND FCST GEOMETRY OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS.  A TORNADO OR

TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH BOW/LEWP/MESOVORTEX FEATURES

ACCOMPANYING QLCS.  HOWEVER...DOMINANT THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING

WIND...WITH SPORADIC LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27035.





...EDWARDS

