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WWUS20 KWNS 032035

SEL3

SPC WW 032035

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 273

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

330 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  SOUTHWEST KANSAS

  WESTERN OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE

  CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE



* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL

  1100 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF

DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES WEST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SERN CO INTO SWRN

KS AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAX WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS

CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE

FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL WITH INITIAL STORMS.  NWP

MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLES SHOW STRONG

AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THAT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY

GENERATE A MESOSCALE COLD POOL AND GROW UPSCALE INTO SEWD MOVING

MCS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29025.





...WEISS

