

807 

WWUS20 KWNS 022044

SEL9

SPC WW 022044

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-030400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 129

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHWEST KANSAS

       WESTERN OKLAHOMA

       NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

MINERAL WELLS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 126...WW 127...WW 128...



DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR

TWO ALONG STATIONARY FRONT OVER SWRN KS INTO THE NRN TX PNHDL...AS

WELL AS ALONG DRYLINE INTO W-CNTRL TX.  AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME

STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-3500

J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AREA

VAD/PROFILER DATA AND MODEL FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT

VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ IS

MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER LARGE

TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

BY 03/00-03Z...BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO

STRENGTHEN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH

STORMS THAT REMAIN MORE DISCRETE.  THUS...CONDITIONS WILL BE

MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH LATER THIS

EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 20025.





...MEAD

