

051 

WWUS20 KWNS 011817

SEL1

SPC WW 011817

ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-020000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 751

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

115 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS

       PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

       MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF

DURANT OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND

INTENSITY ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN KS/ERN

OK.  WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING

ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS WHICH

WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED BRIEF

TORNADO...HOWEVER PRIMARY MODE EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR ALONG WITH

DAMAGING WIND THREAT.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...HALES

