

809 

WWUS20 KWNS 312207

SEL9

SPC WW 312207

NMZ000-TXZ000-010400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 409

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

510 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

       PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF GUADALUPE PASS TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF

CHILDRESS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...WW 408...



DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE NWWD

ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. WITH MLCAPE AOA

2500 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF BRN SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE E/NE

ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL

DAMAGING WINDS ARE PRIMARY THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26020.





...HALES

