

873 

WWUS20 KWNS 291328

SEL6

SPC WW 291328

ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-292100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

725 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

       EASTERN KANSAS

       WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

       NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL

300 PM CST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE

OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...



DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING INVOLVING

A LONG-LIVED BOWING LINE SEGMENT AND INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT

ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE WATCH AREA.  CURRENT

THINKING IS THAT THE LINE SEGMENT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE

FRONTAL CONVECTION...RESULTING IN A LARGER-SCALE QLCS WHICH WILL

MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.  12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS

INDICATE THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH

MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE

SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF

DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.





...MEAD

