

186 

WWUS20 KWNS 181755

SEL9

SPC WW 181755

ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-182300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1150 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHERN ALABAMA

       WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

       SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1150 AM UNTIL

500 PM CST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA

FLORIDA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...



DISCUSSION...MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT SVR MCS CONTINUE TO

TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST LA. EXPECT THIS

DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE DELTA TO MOBILE BAY OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF HOURS AS LARGER SYNOPTIC LOW TAKES FORM ACROSS THE WRN

GULF. WITH TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF

THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...OVERALL SVR STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO HAVE

DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS

TREND...FORCED ASCENT WITH THE MESOLOW...AND ALONG THE WARM

FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AN

INCREASING CHANCE THAT PARCELS BECOME SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE

MESOSLOW AS IT SPREADS EAST TO SUPPORT EPISODES OF OCCASIONAL STORM

INTENSIFICATION AND A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR

TWO.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.





...CARBIN

