

005 

WWUS20 KWNS 170129

SEL8

SPC WW 170129

KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-170600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 438

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

830 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

       EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

       EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF WICHITA KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 435...WW 436...WW 437...



DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY JUST N

OF THE KS/OK BORDER ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY.  00Z SOUNDINGS

REVEALED AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY /MLCAPE AOA 3000

J/KG/...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

HOWEVER...RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...LINGERING CONVECTIVE

INHIBITION...AND ONLY A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ BRING OVERNIGHT SUGGEST

THAT STORM COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE.  IF STORMS PERSIST AND/OR

INCREASE IN COVERAGE...STORM MOTION COULD EVENTUALLY TAKE THE SEVERE

THREAT INTO EXTREME N/NE OK AND SW MO.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29015.





...THOMPSON

