

295 

WWUS20 KWNS 302128

SEL1

SPC WW 302128

NMZ000-310500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 641

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

330 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL

1100 PM MDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF RATON NEW MEXICO TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 639...WW 640...



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY

OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM.  WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR

MASS AND FAVORABLE NWLY FLOW REGIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED

TO DEVELOP/MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN NM PLAINS THIS EVENING.  A FEW

SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GREATER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 32025.





...HALES

