

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 202044

SEL9

SPC WW 202044

AZZ000-210600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 549

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1245 PM PST FRI JUL 20 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL

1000 PM PST.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF GILA BEND ARIZONA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAFFORD

ARIZONA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 546...WW 547...WW 548...



DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG MOGOLLON RIM

TERRITORY IN RESPONSE TO WWD MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ON WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY.  RUC SOUNDING PROFILES FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE

LOWEST 3KM WITH ML PARCEL CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.  EXPECT MAIN

THREAT TO BE MICROBURSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WOULD NOR RULE OUT

AN ISOLATED REPORT OF HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 11030.





...MCCARTHY

