

591 

WWUS20 KWNS 012331

SEL3

SPC WW 012331

ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020700-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 753

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

630 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

       NORTHWEST LOUISIANA

       NORTHEAST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM

UNTIL 200 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW

TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 751...WW 752...



DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SW

AR/NE TX/NW LA...WHILE OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORM IN THE WARM

SECTOR ACROSS SW AR IN A ZONE OF WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT.  THE

COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER

VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE

WARM FRONT IN AR...THOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND

INSTABILITY TONIGHT SUGGESTS THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE

LIMITED.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29030.





...THOMPSON

