

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 231923

SEL9

SPC WW 231923

NMZ000-TXZ000-240300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 69

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NEW MEXICO

       FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900

PM MDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF EL

PASO TEXAS TO 100 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ALBUQUERQUE NEW MEXICO.

 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND

INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO

INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION

OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING NEWD TOWARD SRN NM.  LOW LEVEL AIR

MASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S

AND 50S...AND CONTINUED HEATING WITHIN CLEAR AREAS WILL DESTABILIZE

FURTHER WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL

SUPPORT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...WITH STRONGER CELLS

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



ADDITIONAL WATCHES...AREA TO THE EAST OF THIS WW IS BEING MONITORED

FOR ADDITIONAL WW AS VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON

MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTH OF GDP.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 20045.





...WEISS

