

670 

WWUS20 KWNS 221756

SEL3

SPC WW 221756

AZZ000-NMZ000-230200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 533

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1140 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  EASTERN ARIZONA

  WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO



* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL

  800 PM MDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS

    TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF

FARMINGTON NEW MEXICO TO 80 MILES WEST OF TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES

NEW MEXICO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 532...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVE OVER MUCH

OF WW AREA AS SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WITH

APPROACHING UPR TROUGH FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. WITH 50+ KT

MID-LVL JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH...AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL

EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL.

FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN

NM...GIVEN EXPECTED DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUASI-LINEAR

FORCING. A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY IN ERN

AZ/FAR WRN NM...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE

PRESENT AND A LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY FORM BENEATH MID-LVL

MOIST AXIS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24045.





...CORFIDI

