

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 162032

SEL4

SPC WW 162032

MIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-170200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 694

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

435 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN

       LAKE HURON

       LAKE MICHIGAN



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 435 PM UNTIL

1000 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF MANISTEE MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BAD

AXE MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...



DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER

MI INVOF STALLED SURFACE FRONT BISECTING THE STATE...WITH LITTLE OR

NO CAPPING LEFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...AREA VWPS AND

18Z SOUNDING FROM APX INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR ACROSS THE

NRN HALF OF THE STATE.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASE IN SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL

FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  ALSO...MCS PERSISTING OVER ERN WI MAY

SURVIVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MI AND SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS INTO WRN LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27035.





...EVANS

