

295 

WWUS20 KWNS 121919

SEL2

SPC WW 121919

COZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 382

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST COLORADO

       NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

       WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

       WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL

900 PM MDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF LA JUNTA COLORADO TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...



DISCUSSION...RECENT TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE HIGH

TERRAIN OF S-CNTRL CO/N-CNTRL NM WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO

DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR FARTHER TO THE E ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER

THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR SERN CO.  AMBIENT AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED

BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THIS

INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A

VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WNWLY SHEAR.

AS SUCH...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28020.





...MEAD

