

409 

WWUS20 KWNS 011912

SEL3

SPC WW 011912

ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-020300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 383

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

210 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  NORTHERN ARKANSAS

  SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

  SOUTHWEST INDIANA

  WESTERN KENTUCKY

  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI

  NORTHWEST TENNESSEE



* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

OWENSBORO KENTUCKY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH OVER

THE NRN OZARKS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTN AS SFC HEATING FURTHER

DESTABILIZES REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM W CNTRL MO MCV. LARGE-SCALE

ASCENT ALSO WILL SOMEWHAT INCREASE WITH TIME AS SD/NEB SHORTWAVE

TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD. AVAILABLE VWP DATA SUGGEST SUFFICIENT WSWLY

DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN MLCAPE

ON THE ORDER OF 3500 J/KG. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER OR

TWO...WITH A WIND THREAT FROM EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING/POSSIBLY

TRANSIENT ROTATING STRUCTURES CONTINUING E INTO THE LWR OH BY EVE.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26030.





...CORFIDI

