

243 

WWUS20 KWNS 202222

SEL5

SPC WW 202222

MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-210300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 505

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

620 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN

  NORTHWEST OHIO

  LAKE ERIE

  LAKE HURON



* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 620 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FINDLAY

OHIO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 503...WW 504...



DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL NRN IND/S CNTRL LWR MI SQLN EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE E THROUGH MID-EVE. FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED NATURE OF EXISTING

STORMS...PRESENCE OF AMPLE WLY DEEP SHEAR...AND APPRECIABLE

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN WATER VAPOR

AND VWP DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DMGG WIND GUSTS EWD

INTO SE LWR MI/NW OH.



FARTHER N...ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL STORMS HAVE FORM/STRENGTHENED IN

THE PAST HOUR ALONG A SW-NE AXIS NEAR MBS/SAGINAW BAY /REF MCD

1744/. WHILE BUOYANCY IS MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION RELATIVE TO

POINTS S...ASCENT/WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGER...POTENTIALLY

SUPPORTING ISOLD DMGG GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...CORFIDI



239 

WWUS20 KWNS 202222

SEL5

SPC WW 202222

MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-210300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 505

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

620 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN

  NORTHWEST OHIO

  LAKE ERIE

  LAKE HURON



* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 620 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FINDLAY

OHIO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 503...WW 504...



DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL NRN IND/S CNTRL LWR MI SQLN EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE E THROUGH MID-EVE. FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED NATURE OF EXISTING

STORMS...PRESENCE OF AMPLE WLY DEEP SHEAR...AND APPRECIABLE

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN WATER VAPOR

AND VWP DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DMGG WIND GUSTS EWD

INTO SE LWR MI/NW OH.



FARTHER N...ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL STORMS HAVE FORM/STRENGTHENED IN

THE PAST HOUR ALONG A SW-NE AXIS NEAR MBS/SAGINAW BAY /REF MCD

1744/. WHILE BUOYANCY IS MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION RELATIVE TO

POINTS S...ASCENT/WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGER...POTENTIALLY

SUPPORTING ISOLD DMGG GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24035.





...CORFIDI

