

477 

WWUS20 KWNS 282304

SEL7

SPC WW 282304

KSZ000-NEZ000-290600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 537

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

605 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

       CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 605 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF

GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF CONCORDIA KANSAS.  FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 535...WW 536...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS EVENING WITHIN A HOT...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER

ALONG AND W OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM W OF BBW TO N OF CNK.

AIR MASS INVOF OF BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF

1500-2500+ J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH.  WHEN

COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED...MULTICELL OR PULSE CLUSTERS W OF WARM

FRONT...AND PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELLS ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF

BOUNDARY.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH SEVERE

HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28010.





...MEAD

