

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 041942

SEL5

SPC WW 041942

KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-050300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 485

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

       WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

       NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF

COLUMBIA MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...WW 483...WW 484...



DISCUSSION...A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG TO SVR PULSE STORMS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF MCV-RELATED CONFLUENCE BANDS AND REMAINING

SEGMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF KS AND MO.  WEAK

DEEP SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SUGGEST THAT STORM MOTION WILL BE

DOMINATED BY PROPAGATION ASSOCIATED WITH MCV CIRCULATION...WITH AN

OVERALL SLOW SWD MOTION WITH TIME UNTIL ENTIRE REGION IS

CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 34015.





...CORFIDI

