

752 

WWUS20 KWNS 131016

SEL1

SPC WW 131016

ILZ000-MOZ000-131800-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 471

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

515 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WESTERN ILLINOIS

       NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 515 AM UNTIL 100

PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT LOUIS

MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM CDJ TO JEF

SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING

ALONG ERN EDGE OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS CAP AND AT THE TERMINUS OF 50+ KT

SWLY LLJ.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE

OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50+ KT...SETUP WILL

SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29030.





...MEAD

