

976 

WWUS20 KWNS 192049

SEL7

SPC WW 192049

MNZ000-NDZ000-200400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 497

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

350 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

       EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF

HALLOCK MINNESOTA TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 495...WW 496...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ERODES

REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS

CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000+ J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF

DEEP...NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL EVOLUTION.  INITIAL

STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WITH THE

THREAT TRANSITIONING TO MORE DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY GROWS

UPSCALE INTO AN MCS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 33020.





...MEAD

