

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 011802

SEL5

SPC WW 011802

INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LMZ000-020000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 205

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

205 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN INDIANA

       SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

       NORTHWESTERN OHIO

       LAKE ERIE

       LAKE MICHIGAN



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL

800 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF

VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MANSFIELD OHIO.

 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW NEAR CHI WITH WARM FRONT EWD ALONG SRN MI

BORDER.  AIRMASS NOW VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE TO S OF FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY AND JUST N OF WARM FRONT

AND THEN SPREAD E/ESEWD ACROSS WATCH AREA.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES

AND 40-50KT OF SHEAR POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE

ENHANCING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26030.





...HALES

