

196 

WWUS20 KWNS 102301

SEL3

SPC WW 102301

KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-110600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 653

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

555 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EASTERN KANSAS

       WESTERN MISSOURI

       NORTHERN OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 555 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF

LEAVENWORTH KANSAS TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE

OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN

PERHAPS TWO OR THREE AREAS OVER ERN KS/NRN OK.  DEVELOPMENT WILL BE

IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED LOW LVL HEATING/MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LOW

LVL CONFLUENCE WITHIN AND ALONG W SIDE OF MOIST WARM SECTOR.

INITIATION ALSO MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ENE FROM OK/TX

PANHANDLE REGION PER VWP/WATER VAPOR.  AT ANY RATE...DEGREE OF

SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /REF MCD 1813/...MODERATE DEEP DIRECTIONAL

SHEAR...AND WEAK LOW LVL LINEAR FORCING SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  QUALITY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...EXPECTED

NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE SSW LLJ...AND BACKED FLOW INVOF WNW-ESE

STNRY FRONT IN NE KS/WRN MO FURTHER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR

TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND/HAIL...BEFORE STORMS MERGE INTO

AN MCS LATER THIS EVE.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.





...CORFIDI

