

072 

WWUS20 KWNS 101824

SEL9

SPC WW 101824

ARZ000-MOZ000-110200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 89

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS

       THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BOOTHEEL



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88...



DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS AR

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE CAP IS WEAKENING PER 18Z LZK/SHV

SOUNDINGS.  CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING

COLD FRONT IN SW AR...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM NWD

ALONG THE FRONT...AND POTENTIALLY IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR.  MLCAPE

IS ALREADY AOA 2000 J/KG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND BOTH

DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR

LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE THE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE

LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR

AND MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES.  ASSUMING A COUPLE OF

SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS CAN PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COLD

FRONT...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.





...THOMPSON

