

913 

WWUS20 KWNS 271914

SEL0

SPC WW 271914

KSZ000-MOZ000-280300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 20

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

115 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS

       PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900

PM CST.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHEAST

OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON

KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER

S CENTRAL KS...IMMEDIATELY N OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.  STEEP LAPSE

RATES AND A FEED OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT

MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG...WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR

WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE

MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH AREAS IMMEDIATELY S OF THE WATCH AREA

WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT WITH STORMS ON THE

WARM FRONT A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24040.





...THOMPSON

