

231 

WWUS20 KWNS 140356

SEL8

SPC WW 140356

MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-140900-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 388

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1055 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

       SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

       NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1055 PM

UNTIL 400 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF

FARGO NORTH DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 386. WATCH NUMBER 386 WILL NOT

BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1055 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 387...



DISCUSSION...QLCS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND NORTH CENTRAL SD IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN

ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE

COLD FRONT.  THE SYSTEM CONTAINS EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/LEWP

STRUCTURES...AND CONVECTIVE INTENSITY MAY INCREASE TONIGHT IN

RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTO SD /MODEL GUIDANCE

INDICATES 850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT BETWEEN 06-09Z/.

STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45-55 KT COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT

INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH AN

INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE

LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25040.





...WEISS

