

990 

WWUS20 KWNS 132043

SEL7

SPC WW 132043

NMZ000-TXZ000-140400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 387

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

       WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

MARFA TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ROSWELL NEW MEXICO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 386...



DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE MIDLEVEL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS

AFTERNOON ABOVE THE CAP WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT

ATTENDANT TO SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER

REMAINS RATHER MOIST FOR THE ELEVATION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S.  WHEN COUPLED WITH THE EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE

RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE

ESTIMATED UPWARDS OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY COINCIDES

WITH A CORRIDOR OF 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...INDICATING A HIGH

LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

SHOULD ELEVATED STORMS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ROOTED WITHIN THE

BOUNDARY LAYER.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29025.





...MEAD

