

069 

WWUS20 KWNS 071918

SEL3

SPC WW 071918

KSZ000-MOZ000-080200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

220 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST KANSAS

       SOUTHWEST MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900

PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF

CHANUTE KANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD

MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS NEAR ICT APPEAR TO BE

EVOLVING INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH MORE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.

GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SW MO.

LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED

DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27025.





...THOMPSON

