

192 

WWUS20 KWNS 121920

SEL9

SPC WW 121920

KSZ000-OKZ000-130300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 459

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

220 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

       NORTHERN OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST OF CHANUTE

KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO

INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING

EWD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE PRESENCE OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW

AND W-E ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS THE

STORMS WITHIN A MOIST...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF

1500-2500 J/KG.  AREA PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO

THREAT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOW LCL/LFC

HEIGHTS.  STILL...SEASONABLY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL

SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28025.





...MEAD

