

902 

WWUS20 KWNS 051914

SEL8

SPC WW 051914

COZ000-KSZ000-060300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 468

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

210 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  EASTERN COLORADO

  WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS



* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...GRAVITY WAVES APPEAR TO HAVE SUPPORTED INITIATION OF

STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  LOW-LEVEL

FORCING IS OTHERWISE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT AN UPPER IMPULSE

PROGRESSING ACROSS THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA MAY PROVIDE THE

SUPPORT FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF

A LARGER STORM CLUSTER AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  CAPE IS LARGE AND SUPPORTIVE OF

VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 20-30 KT WESTERLY 500

MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ADDITIONAL TORNADOES

ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE DISCRETE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THEY ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28020.





...KERR

