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000 

WWUS20 KWNS 021958

SEL0

SPC WW 021958

KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-030300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 700

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

300 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS

       SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI

       NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF

COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITHIN ERN AND SRN PORTION

OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN SUSTAINED OVER SERN KS INTO

WRN/CENTRAL MO AND NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT

POSSIBLE ALONG STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO THE WATCH

THIS EVENING.  STRONG HEATING WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY

LAYER WILL SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERAL MORE

HOURS.  GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT...SUPERCELLS AND

SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES CAN BE EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE ENEWD ACROSS

WW THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL

BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24030.





...EVANS

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