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000 

WWUS20 KWNS 052006

SEL0

SPC WW 052006

ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-060300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 810

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

300 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

       SOUTHERN INDIANA

       WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY

       EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS

OF EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL IL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO A VERY

UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE OF 3500-4500 J/KG.  CLEARING SKIES TO

THE NORTH OF AN EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE ALLOWED RAPID

DESTABILIZATION INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL...AND NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA.  NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED

ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS A JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS NRN IL

WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.  DOWNSTREAM

FROM THIS REGION...CLEARING SKIES AND DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED

IN PARTS OF KY AND STORMS OVER SERN IL AND SWRN INDIANA WILL MAY

INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER.  VAD WIND PROFILES

EXHIBIT WNWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT ABOVE 3-4 KM AGL INDICATING

SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28025.





...WEISS

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