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WWUS20 KWNS 032224

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SPC WW 032224

MNZ000-NDZ000-040600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 440

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

520 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

       EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 520 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF ROSEAU MINNESOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...



DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST

TOWARD ERN ND AND WRN MN OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND

PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE

AROUND 3000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORM

DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR TODAY BY WARM TEMPERATURES

ALOFT/CAPPING...AND WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...RECENT

INDICATIONS IN OBJECTIVE DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CAP

HAS WEAKENED AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS THE

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT. EFFECTIVE

BULK SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 30KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY

STRENGTHEN AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26025.





...CARBIN

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