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WWUS20 KWNS 111513

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 450

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1010 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       PART OF EASTERN KANSAS

       MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL

400 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST

OF CHANUTE KANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARMINGTON MISSOURI.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...INITIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY THIS

MORNING SE OF MKC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE

TROUGH AND SEASONABLY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD.  THIS

CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE

IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM

THE INTERSECTION WITH THE MCS INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NWRN TN.  THE

COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND

40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING COMPLEX WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND

LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF

MCS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN KS WITHIN A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC AND

KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WHERE AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29040.





...MEAD

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