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694 

WWUS20 KWNS 121941

SEL0

SPC WW 121941

ARZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-130300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 460

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS

       MISSOURI BOOTHEEL

       FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

       WESTERN TENNESSEE



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES EAST OF JACKSON

TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...WW 459...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH

A MCV TRANSLATING EWD ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER.  AMBIENT INFLOW AIR

MASS ACROSS AR/MS IS HOT AND VERY MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF

2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A BELT OF 30-35 KT

MIDLEVEL FLOW ATTENDING THE MCV WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH

OF TSTMS INTO CLUSTERS OR BANDS WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28025.





...MEAD

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