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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 530

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

415 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK

       PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA

       LAKE ERIE

       LAKE ONTARIO



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 415 PM UNTIL

1100 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN NEW YORK TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF

UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 529...



DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS ERN LE IN RESPONSE TO

APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND MAX.  WITH

THE AIR MASS NOW MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG AND 40 KT

OF MID LEVEL FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS EVOLVE

INTO LINE SEGMENTS/SHORT BOWS.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO

POSSIBLE ENHANCING WIND THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.

A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION

VECTOR 26035.





...HALES

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