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659 

WWUS20 KWNS 181621

SEL0

SPC WW 181621

CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-RIZ000-CWZ000-190100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 490

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1220 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CONNECTICUT

       MASSACHUSETTS

       NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY

       SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

       RHODE ISLAND

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL

900 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST

OF NEW BEDFORD MASSACHUSETTS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

NEWARK NEW JERSEY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SETTLING SWD INTO THE

REGION.  WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME QUITE HOT...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH

DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF

2000-3000+ J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP...WLY

SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING

WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 30020.





...MEAD

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