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274 

WWUS20 KWNS 291945

SEL0

SPC WW 291945

KSZ000-OKZ000-300400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 450

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS

  NORTHERN OKLAHOMA



* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL

  1100 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHANUTE

KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD INTO

CNTRL KS.  THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE MOIST

WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.

MOREOVER...AREA VAD DATA INDICATE SELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO WLY

IN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR

FOR SUPERCELLS.  INITIAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND

PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE

LIMITED BY MODEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND THE TENDENCY FOR

DESTRUCTIVE STORM INTERFERENCE WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS

AFTER INITIATION.  UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS

IS ANTICIPATED BY EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS

AND HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27020.





...MEAD

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