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000 

WWUS20 KWNS 301116

SEL1

SPC WW 301116

NMZ000-TXZ000-301800-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 91

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

615 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

       WEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 615 AM UNTIL 100

PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST

OF WINK TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE

STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE

IMPULSE DEVELOPS EWD/NEWD FROM NRN MEX THIS MORNING. STEEPENING

LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO

MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-800 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES

AROUND 50KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE

ORGANIZED/ROBUST AND POSSIBLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE THE

MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. GREATEST POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT FROM

THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 20030.





...CARBIN/HART

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