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000 

WWUS20 KWNS 152252

SEL1

SPC WW 152252

MNZ000-NDZ000-160600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 521

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

550 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WESTERN MINNESOTA

       EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO

NORTH DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 518...WW 520...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY INVOF STALLED NW/SE

FRONT OVER ERN ND THIS EVENING...DOWNSTREAM FROM APPARENT MID LVL

VORT EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW OVER SRN MANITOBA.  STRONGLY VEERING DEEP

WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH ANY

SUSTAINED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  BUT

RELATIVELY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO LARGE T/TD

SPREADS ALOFT SUGGEST MAIN SVR THREATS SHOULD BE WIND/HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 33035.





...CORFIDI

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