

729 

WWUS20 KWNS 281920

SEL1

SPC WW 281920

COZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-290300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 631

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO

       EASTERN NEW MEXICO

       WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

       WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL

900 PM MDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF

TRINIDAD COLORADO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROSWELL NEW MEXICO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 630...



DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN

NM AND SERN CO. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT SEWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY

ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALSO...A JET MAX MOVING INTO

THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN THE ALREADY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE

ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED

BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ALONG WEAK FRONT NEAR THE CO/NM

BORDER...BUT WEAKER OVERALL LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS VERY LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 33025.





...IMY

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