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WWUS20 KWNS 142058

SEL1

SPC WW 142058

ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-150400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 881

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

255 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

       FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA

       WESTERN KENTUCKY

       SOUTHEAST MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF POPLAR

BLUFF MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 879...WW 880...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT MOVING

THROUGH THE AREA.  AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND

RESULTANT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  RUC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE

AND AREA VAD DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR

/60-80 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 150-350 M2/S2.  WHILE STORMS

MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO ORGANIZE DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELLS

APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW

TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME HAIL.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.





...MEAD

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