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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 31

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

450 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHERN ALABAMA

       THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

       FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 450 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF CRESTVIEW

FLORIDA TO 120 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA.  FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO

WATCH NUMBER 29. WATCH NUMBER 29 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 450

PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 30...



DISCUSSION...PREFRONTAL SQLN NOW EXTENDING SSW FROM THE MOBILE AREA

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SRN AL.

EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR

ISOLD TORNADOES AND SMALL BOWS WITH DMGG WIND.  FARTHER

W...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY GLANCE FAR SE LA AND THE

ADJACENT CSTL WATERS AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES SWRN EXTENSION OF THE

SQLN AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF.  WITH LOW TO

MID LVL WIND FIELD EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT INCREASE OVER REGION GIVEN

CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF E TX UPR TROUGH...SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST AND

POSSIBLY INCREASE THIS EVE DESPITE GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW LVL FLOW.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.





...CORFIDI

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