

563 

WWUS20 KWNS 190349

SEL1

SPC WW 190349

TXZ000-191000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81...RESENT

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM UNTIL

500 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST

SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

CHILDRESS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS THE

PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE.  STORMS ARE IN

AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND

AMPLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO WITH CONSIDERABLE CAP.  GIVEN

THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE FORCING AND THE STRENGTHENING CAP...BELIEVE

THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CAP STRENGTH AND STORM TRENDS FOR

POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO RISK.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26035.





...HART



926 

WWUS20 KWNS 190349

SEL1

SPC WW 190349

TXZ000-191000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM UNTIL

500 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST

SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

CHILDRESS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS THE

PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE.  STORMS ARE IN

AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND

AMPLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO WITH CONSIDERABLE CAP.  GIVEN

THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE FORCING AND THE STRENGTHENING CAP...BELIEVE

THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CAP STRENGTH AND STORM TRENDS FOR

POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO RISK.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26035.





...HART

