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086 

WWUS20 KWNS 262028

SEL1

SPC WW 262028

NMZ000-TXZ000-270300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 301

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

225 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

       WEST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL

900 PM MDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

DRYDEN TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 300...



DISCUSSION...STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG

AND EAST OF WEST TX/ERN NM DRYLINE WILL LIKELY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE OVER

THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX AND NM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS

BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL

BY EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM

UPDRAFTS DESPITE RATHER AMBIGUOUS/NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. SFC

TO 6KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25KT WITH POCKETS NEAR 30KT

SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINALLY ORGANIZED AND SOME PERSISTENT CELLS WITH

SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC

SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST POTENTIAL FROM

SOME OF THE STRONGER OUTFLOW DOMINATE CELLS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 23015.





...CARBIN

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