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WWUS20 KWNS 191411

SEL1

SPC WW 191411

MIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-191900-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 411

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

915 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

       LAKE HURON

       LAKE MICHIGAN

       LAKE SUPERIOR



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 915 AM UNTIL

200 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST

OF TRAVERSE CITY MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ALPENA

MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410...



DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI

WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT

FEW HOURS.  THIS LONG-LIVED SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE.

THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 1-2

HOURS...BUT A MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THE WATCH AREA

MAY RESULT IN RE-INTENSIFICATION.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27040.





...HART

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