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517 

WWUS20 KWNS 012305

SEL1

SPC WW 012305

MTZ000-020500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 451

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

455 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL

1100 PM MDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH OF

BOZEMAN MONTANA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAVRE MONTANA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 442...WW 443...WW

444...WW 445...WW 446...WW 447...WW 448...WW 449...WW 450...



DISCUSSION...SVR THREAT INCREASING OVER WW AREA THROUGH REMAINDER

AFTERNOON...AS ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD OUT OF PERSISTENT E-CENTRAL

ID/SWRN MT CONVECTIVE GENESIS REGION...AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOP

ALONG AND E OF EWD-MOVING BOUNDARY OVER W-CENTRAL MT.  WITH AT LEAST

MRGLLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AND PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR

FOR SUPERCELLS...SMALL BOWS AND SVR MULTICELLS ALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 23035.





...EDWARDS

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