

000 

WWUS20 KWNS 140222

SEL2

SPC WW 140222

KSZ000-NEZ000-141000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 702

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

920 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN AND WESTERN KANSAS

       SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM

UNTIL 500 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF

CONCORDIA KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE ACROSS SWRN INTO NORTH

CENTRAL KS. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING

LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS

BOUNDARY. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT

50-60 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE EXPECTED ELEVATED

NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 22030.





...IMY

