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055 

WWUS20 KWNS 122056

SEL2

SPC WW 122056

ILZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-130400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 462

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

400 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS

       FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS

       PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF

JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF FARMINGTON MISSOURI.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...WW 459...WW

460...WW 461...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING ALONG

LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH

APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  THE AMBIENT AIR MASS INVOF

THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.

WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK

INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL

FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH

THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29025.





...MEAD

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