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WWUS20 KWNS 111810

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 462

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1210 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST COLORADO

       EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

       THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL

700 PM MDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF LA

JUNTA COLORADO TO 55 MILES EAST OF RATON NEW MEXICO.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF THE HIGH

TERRAIN NEAR RATON AND TRINIDAD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS

SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN NM.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE

FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES

AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.  RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT

SPREADS SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER

LIMITED.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28020.





...THOMPSON

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