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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 652

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

       SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT

LAKES MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO

WATCH NUMBER 651. WATCH NUMBER 651 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER

340 PM CDT.



DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE

OF HOURS TO THE IMMEDIATE SW OF GFK...WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS

BEGINNING W OF JMS NEAR THE MERGER OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAK

SURFACE LOW.  THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN

MLCAPE NEAR 6000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 60 KT...WHILE

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHEAR ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.





...THOMPSON

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