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WWUS20 KWNS 192239

SEL2

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

535 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN MINNESOTA

       LAKE SUPERIOR



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 535

PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF DETROIT LAKES MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELY

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF

NRN MN INTO THE EVENING WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS

ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A SHARP WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS

CNTRL MN WITH ORIGINS NEAR A SFC LOW IN ERN SD. LIFT ACROSS THE WARM

FRONT SHOULD INCREASE AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH

MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. AIR MASS

TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE VERY HOT AND CAPPED REGIME ACROSS

THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO FUEL ROBUST UPDRAFTS AMIDST POTENT

EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT. ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND

PERHAPS EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE

WITH BOTH WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE MORE INTENSE

CORES.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25035.





...CARBIN

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