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065 

WWUS20 KWNS 302039

SEL2

SPC WW 302039

NCZ000-VAZ000-310300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 22

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

       SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL

1000 PM EST.



HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF

LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA TO 75 MILES SOUTH OF DUBLIN VIRGINIA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 21...



DISCUSSION...QLCS IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AS CONVECTION MOVES OFF

THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN VA AND NW NC...POSSIBLE RELATED TO AN

EMBEDDED MCV IN THE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  INSTABILITY IS

MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION

WILL BE SPORADIC AT BEST.  HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND

MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL SUPPORT TRANSFER OF 60-70 KT

MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/BOWING

SEGMENTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25045.





...THOMPSON

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