

104 

WWUS20 KWNS 191839

SEL2

SPC WW 191839

MIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-200200-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 422

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

240 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN

  LAKE HURON

  LAKE MICHIGAN



* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM EDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF MANISTEE MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF BAD AXE

MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE FORMING ALONG THE

SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW LOWER MI...AND ALONG A DIFFUSE

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI.  CONTINUED

DESTABILIZATION AND 35-50 KT WLY WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK

OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER

CELL/LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27045.





...THOMPSON

