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WWUS20 KWNS 152019

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KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 492

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

320 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS

  WESTERN OKLAHOMA

  NORTHWEST TEXAS



* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL

  1100 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF

MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS

TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NW TX TO SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.

REGION LIES WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND EXPECT CONTINUED

BACKGROUND ASCENT TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS GIVEN GRADUAL

AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.

MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADING SEWD FROM WRN KS WILL ALSO AID IN

INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE

EVENING SO THAT STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT

WITH TIME. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MUTLICELLS AND

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE ORGANIZED MCS WILL EVOLVE

ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND AND

HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK

THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 34020.





...CARBIN

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