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WWUS20 KWNS 011218

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SPC WW 011218

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 43

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

615 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

       NORTHERN LOUISIANA

       NORTHEAST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 615 AM UNTIL

200 PM CST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES

LOUISIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 40...WW 41...WW 42...



DISCUSSION...STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONE

ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS

OVER PARTS OF NERN TX...NRN LA...AND SRN AR THIS MORNING. CONVECTION

ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN INCREASING SLOWLY AND THIS TREND IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LARGE SCALE FORCING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE

REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE

VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND TORNADOES.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.





...CARBIN/HART

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