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424 

WWUS20 KWNS 012038

SEL3

SPC WW 012038

ARZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-020300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 223

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN ARKANSAS

       SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSOURI BOOTHEEL

       WESTERN TENNESSEE



EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JACKSON

TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 221...WW 222...



DISCUSSION...EAST-WEST AXIS OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT

ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY SWD ADVANCING FRONT AND WWD MOVING MCV SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN TSTMS FROM NRN AR EWD ACROSS THE MS

RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION

IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION...THERE APPEARS

TO BE A BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW MOVING EWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE

MCV NOW OVER THE OZARKS. THIS...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL

DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION AND

INTENSIFICATION INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER MCS MAY BE THE RESULT WITH

WIND/HAIL THREAT PERSISTING ACROSS MS RIVER INTO LATE TONIGHT.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27025.





...CARBIN

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