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ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-170000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 483

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1230 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

       SOUTHEAST KANSAS

       EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

       NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST

OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...SMALL MCS OVER SE KS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE

ESEWD/SEWD ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NE OK/NW AR AND ADJACENT

AREAS OF KS/MO.  A FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE SW WILL BE

MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT LLJ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THE STORMS

SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT OVER THE COLD

POOL...NE OF THE STRONGER CAP.  THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND

VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED

CLUSTER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 30025.





...THOMPSON

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