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846 

WWUS20 KWNS 021824

SEL3

SPC WW 021824

INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-030300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 583

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

225 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN INDIANA

       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

       NORTHWEST OHIO

       LAKE ERIE

       LAKE HURON

       LAKE MICHIGAN



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL

1100 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 20 MILES EAST OF BAD AXE

MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS

AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI.

VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL PROMOTE LARGE

STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.  UPSCALE ORGANIZATION

MAY RESULT IN BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26030.





...HART

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