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986 

WWUS20 KWNS 150811

SEL3

SPC WW 150811

TXZ000-151500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 883

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

205 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTH TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 205 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF HONDO TEXAS TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COTULLA TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY

STRENGTH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF S

TX AS NRN MEXICO UPR LOW CONTINUES STEADILY E/ENEWD AND GRADUALLY

DEAMPLIFIES.  LOW LVL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.  BUT

COMBINATION OF AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH

MODERATE...NEAR SFC-BASED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR

LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO

AN E- TO NE-MOVING COMPLEX.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 21030.





...CORFIDI

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