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WWUS20 KWNS 030142

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OKZ000-TXZ000-030900-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 23

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

740 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WESTERN OKLAHOMA

       NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE



EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM

UNTIL 300 AM CST.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GAGE

OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA

REGIME ATTENDANT TO 40-50+ KT LLJ.  WHILE THE AMBIENT AIR MASS IS

NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE

RATES...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL

SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL.



THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS

PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MOISTEN

SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS

SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE

UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 23035.





...MEAD

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