

633 

WWUS20 KWNS 192316

SEL3

SPC WW 192316

MNZ000-SDZ000-WIZ000-200600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 413

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

610 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL MINNESOTA

       NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

       NORTHWEST WISCONSIN



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF WATERTOWN

SOUTH DAKOTA TO 125 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412...



DISCUSSION...INTENSE WARM FRONT EXTENDS IN A ENEWD FASHION FROM A

SFC LOW IN ERN SD...ACROSS CNTRL MN...AND INTO NRN WI. A VERY

MOIST...UNSTABLE AND CURRENTLY CAPPED AIR MASS EXISTS NEAR THE SFC

LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT. E TO ENE SFC WINDS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE

VEER STRONGLY TO SLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE SWLY AT MID

LEVELS RESULTING IN VOLATILE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500

M2/S2 AND PRONOUNCED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER

FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...LFC IS ALSO LOCALLY LOW NEAR THE FRONT

AND SUPPORTIVE OF STORM UPDRAFTS INITIATING NEARER THE SFC. THERE IS

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...REGARDING SFC-BASED STORM

INITIATION IN SUCH A STRONGLY CAPPED REGIME. HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY

AND STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IN THE FORM OF AN

APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ...WHEN COMBINED

WITH SUCH A SUPPORTIVE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADO

POTENTIAL...WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF THE TORNADO WATCH ALONG THE WARM

FRONT THIS EVENING.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.





...CARBIN



633 

WWUS20 KWNS 192316

SEL3

SPC WW 192316

MNZ000-SDZ000-WIZ000-200600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 413

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

610 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL MINNESOTA

       NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

       NORTHWEST WISCONSIN



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF WATERTOWN

SOUTH DAKOTA TO 125 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412...



DISCUSSION...INTENSE WARM FRONT EXTENDS IN A ENEWD FASHION FROM A

SFC LOW IN ERN SD...ACROSS CNTRL MN...AND INTO NRN WI. A VERY

MOIST...UNSTABLE AND CURRENTLY CAPPED AIR MASS EXISTS NEAR THE SFC

LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT. E TO ENE SFC WINDS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE

VEER STRONGLY TO SLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE SWLY AT MID

LEVELS RESULTING IN VOLATILE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500

M2/S2 AND PRONOUNCED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER

FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...LFC IS ALSO LOCALLY LOW NEAR THE FRONT

AND SUPPORTIVE OF STORM UPDRAFTS INITIATING NEARER THE SFC. THERE IS

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...REGARDING SFC-BASED STORM

INITIATION IN SUCH A STRONGLY CAPPED REGIME. HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY

AND STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IN THE FORM OF AN

APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ...WHEN COMBINED

WITH SUCH A SUPPORTIVE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADO

POTENTIAL...WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF THE TORNADO WATCH ALONG THE WARM

FRONT THIS EVENING.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.





...CARBIN

