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580 

WWUS20 KWNS 122322

SEL3

SPC WW 122322

ARZ000-MOZ000-130600-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

520 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS

       BOOT-HEEL OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WALNUT RIDGE

ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



DISCUSSION...GRADUAL INCREASE IN SVR THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW

TORNADOES IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS AS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW

MOVES NEWD ALONG SW-NE ALIGNED BOUNDARY...IN ENVIRONMENT

CHARACTERIZED BY

1. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 55-65 KT LLJ AND

2. AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY WITH WARM-SECTOR MLCAPE 250-750

K/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED MSU MOBILE SOUNDING PROVIDED VIA WFO MEG.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.





...EDWARDS

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