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246 

WWUS20 KWNS 211744

SEL3

SPC WW 211744

CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-LEZ000-LOZ000-220100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 203

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

140 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT

  WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

  NEW YORK

  SOUTHERN VERMONT

  LAKE ERIE

  LAKE ONTARIO



* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL

  900 PM EDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 202...



DISCUSSION...SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY

NEAR/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES

REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND.  IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES

CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE

CAPE...SHEAR BENEATH 30 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY

SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AT LEAST BRIEF

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  WITH TIME...CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS

GENERATED BY ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR...RESULTING IN ONE OR MORE EAST

SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING SMALL STORM CLUSTERS WITH THE RISK FOR

POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29025.





...KERR

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