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WWUS20 KWNS 311901

SEL3

SPC WW 311901

COZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 453

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

200 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  SOUTHEAST COLORADO

  WESTERN KANSAS

  NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

  OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

  WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE



* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM

  UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI

NEW MEXICO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES

THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR

MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000+ J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY

COINCIDES WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MODEST /30-35 KT/

DEEP NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS WILL

LIKELY COALESCE INTO SWD OR SWWD-MOVING CLUSTERS BY EVENING WITH A

CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 36020.





...MEAD

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