

097 

WWUS20 KWNS 201831

SEL3

SPC WW 201831

MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-210100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 503

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

130 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  MUCH OF MINNESOTA

  EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

  EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA



* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL

  800 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...STRONG ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF

70-80KT MID LEVEL JET WILL BE REALIZED ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING

EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN ND ATTM. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY

IN THE LOW-MID 50S F...THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/LIFT WILL COINCIDE

WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF LOW-TOPPED

CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY

EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS

EXTREME SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL

MN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM

WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEAST AT

SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 45KT. HAIL TO AN INCH ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH

A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.

A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION

VECTOR 29045.





...CARBIN



489 

WWUS20 KWNS 201831

SEL3

SPC WW 201831

MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-210100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 503

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

130 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  MUCH OF MINNESOTA

  EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

  EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA



* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL

  800 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



DISCUSSION...STRONG ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF

70-80KT MID LEVEL JET WILL BE REALIZED ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING

EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN ND ATTM. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY

IN THE LOW-MID 50S F...THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/LIFT WILL COINCIDE

WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF LOW-TOPPED

CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY

EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS

EXTREME SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL

MN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM

WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEAST AT

SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 45KT. HAIL TO AN INCH ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH

A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.

A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION

VECTOR 29045.





...CARBIN

