

872 

WWUS20 KWNS 312213

SEL3

SPC WW 312213

ARZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-010300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 13

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

510 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS

  MISSOURI BOOTHEEL

  WESTERN TENNESSEE



* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

    POSSIBLE

  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST

OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JACKSON

TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 10...WW 11...WW

12...



DISCUSSION...THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS

PRESENTLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING OVER OZARKS AND EXTREME SERN MO

SHOULD MOVE INTO CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND

DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC BUOYANCY...LOCATED N OF OUTFLOW ARC FROM MS/SERN

AR CONVECTION.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EVIDENT

AND...IN TANDEM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG

MLCAPE...INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS TO PRODUCE LARGE

HAIL.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE ALSO PSBL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 30030.





...EDWARDS



439 

WWUS20 KWNS 312213

SEL3

SPC WW 312213

ARZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-010300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 13

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

510 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS

  MISSOURI BOOTHEEL

  WESTERN TENNESSEE



* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL

  1000 PM CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

    POSSIBLE

  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST

OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JACKSON

TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



&&



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 10...WW 11...WW

12...



DISCUSSION...THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS

PRESENTLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING OVER OZARKS AND EXTREME SERN MO

SHOULD MOVE INTO CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND

DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC BUOYANCY...LOCATED N OF OUTFLOW ARC FROM MS/SERN

AR CONVECTION.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EVIDENT

AND...IN TANDEM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG

MLCAPE...INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS TO PRODUCE LARGE

HAIL.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE ALSO PSBL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 30030.





...EDWARDS

