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WWUS20 KWNS 080650

SEL4

SPC WW 080650

KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-081400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 864

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

150 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       WESTERN KANSAS

       SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

       THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

       THE TEXAS PANHANDLE



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 150 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH

SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO TEXAS TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK

NEBRASKA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 861. WATCH NUMBER 861 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT

AFTER 150 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 863...



DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINES SEGMENTS/REGENERATIVE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED

LEWPS/SMALL BOWS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS WW

AREA AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NNE FROM NM

INTO CO.  STRONG LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD...WITH A SIZABLE LOW LVL

DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR

TWO NEAR LEWP CRESTS.  HOWEVER...COMPARATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL LAPSE

RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD KEEP SUCH RISK

LOW...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING SPORADIC DMGG WIND.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 20045.





...CORFIDI

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