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WWUS20 KWNS 202305

SEL4

SPC WW 202305

ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-210300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 34

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

500 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

       SOUTHEAST KANSAS

       SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

       EASTERN OKLAHOMA



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL 900

PM CST.



HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF

CHANUTE KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 33...



DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE AT 45

KTS...WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SHORTER-LIVED SUPERCELLS MOVING

ENE AT 50.  SATELLITE SHOWS THAT ASSOCIATED UPR SYSTEM IS ASSUMING A

NEGATIVE TILT.  THIS WILL ENHANCE STRENGTH/GRADIENT OF LEADING-EDGE

DCVA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL CIRCULATION/LOW LVL WIND FIELD.  COUPLED

WITH PRESENCE OF EXISTING STORMS...THIS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR

CONTINUED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND...DESPITE NIGHTFALL AND MOVEMENT OF

SQLN BEYOND AXIS OF MAXIMUM LOW LVL BUOYANCY.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25050.





...CORFIDI

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