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WWUS20 KWNS 241445

SEL4

SPC WW 241445

FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-242300-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 104

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN FLORIDA

       SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL

700 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF

VIDALIA GEORGIA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GAINESVILLE

FLORIDA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND

COINCIDENT WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY

MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TLH RAOB...SHOULD

INTENSIFY AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. THIS SCENARIO IS

SUPPORTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SEVERAL TSTM

CLUSTERS LIKELY DEVELOPING EWD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. VWP DATA FROM

KVAX DEPICTS VEERING OF THE LOWER-LEVEL WIND PROFILE THAT IS

SUPPORTING 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR

PROBABLE...POTENTIALLY YIELDING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY

SEVERE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 26020.





...CARBIN

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