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WWUS20 KWNS 072048

SEL4

SPC WW 072048

NMZ000-TXZ000-080400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 264

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

350 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

       WESTERN TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST

OF ROSWELL NEW MEXICO TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF MIDLAND TEXAS.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...WW 263...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN POST-FRONTAL

UPSLOPE REGIME.  WHILE SOME MIXING OF DEWPOINTS HAS BEEN NOTED...THE

PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT OF SWLY

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING

SUPERCELLS...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27015.





...MEAD

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