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141 

WWUS20 KWNS 291704

SEL4

SPC WW 291704

NYZ000-PAZ000-300100-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 314

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

105 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK

       CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL

900 PM EDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF BINGHAMTON NEW

YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...WW 313...



DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN PA INTO WRN NY ARE

EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NEW STORMS ARE LIKELY

TO DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE EAST WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY

CAPPED ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/.  SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS

OF 30-35 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE

STORM ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES

LIKELY.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH

STRONGER CELLS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD/NEWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING

HOURS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24025.





...WEISS

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