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WWUS20 KWNS 011736

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CTZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-020000-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 444

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

135 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       CONNECTICUT

       NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

       SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

       EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL 800

PM EDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST

NORTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

TRENTON NEW JERSEY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 442...WW 443...



DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A

SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE NY INTO ERN PA/NRN NJ...AND

STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/ESEWD ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON.  MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE

HEATING...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT

ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS

AND LARGE HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29030.





...THOMPSON

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