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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 464

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

730 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA

       NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

       LAKE SUPERIOR



EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM

UNTIL 300 AM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF BEMIDJI MINNESOTA TO

25 MILES SOUTH OF IRONWOOD

MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 460. WATCH NUMBER 460 WILL NOT

BE IN EFFECT AFTER 730 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 461...WW 462...WW

463...



DISCUSSION...SCTD CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS...MOST SLIGHTLY

ELEVATED...EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND N OF STALLED OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY THAT ATTM EXTENDS ROUGHLY ESE FROM NEAR DETROIT LAKES MN

/DTL/ TO S OF HAYWARD WI /HYR/.  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL

REMAIN WEAK...BUT POSSIBLY AUGMENTED BY DISTURBANCE IN WV IMAGERY

JUST TOPPING LARGE UPR RIDGE.  NEVERTHELESS...DEGREE OF

BUOYANCY...DUE TO BOTH DEEP EML AND RICH PBL MOISTURE...SUGGESTS

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL INCREASE

IN 25 KT SSWLY LLJ.

IN ADDITION...A NON-ZERO THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IF

STORMS PERSIST IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF STALLED BOUNDARY.  THIS

THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST FROM NEAR BEMIDJI /BJI/ ESE TO S

OF DULUTH /DLH/.  IF IT APPEARS THAT SUCH A SCENARIO WILL BECOME

MORE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LVL

FLOW...A SMALL PORTION OF THE WATCH MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO TORNADO.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 29030.





...CORFIDI

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